Celeste Katz of the Daily Politics blog.
In the memo written by Jake Menges, a senior adviser to former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and a partner in a GOP consulting corp, the Lhota campaign seems to suggest that the decline of Christine Quinn in the latest polls, and the possibility of candidates running on various party lines, clears the path for Joe Lhota, if elected as the Republican nominee, to win the mayoral race.
"Lhota is polling better than Mayor Michael Bloomberg did at this point of the campaign in 2001," the memo cites. And "the most recent public polls (Marist - April 17 & Quinnipiac - April 19), do not even bother testing George McDonald or John Catsimatidis, an indication they have only minimal support."
First, the campaign demonstrates, with a drawn graph, the decline of Ms. Quinn in the poll. her numbers have plummeted from 37% to 26%, far away from the 40% threshold needed to avoid a run-off.
Weiner's entry does not snap away the crown from Ms. Quinn, as Quinn remains the Democratic front runner. "However, if she wins the Democratic nomination, she will emerge from the primary a severely weakened candidate. Ultimately, less than 50% of Democrats will support her in the primary and New York Democrats will find themselves deeply divided over her candidacy."
The campaign memo also raises the possibility of a 4-way race. "Former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion has assured the Independence Party he will remain in the race. Meanwhile, the Working Families Party appears ready to endorse Bill de Blasio. With Lhota, this would result in four well-known candidates running for Mayor."
While Quinn, de Blasio and Carrion would split the Democratic vote, Mr. Lhota "would win Republican and Reagan Democrat votes. These are the perfect circumstances for Lhota to become New York’s next Mayor."
Comparing the polls to the most recent open race, the campaign notes that Mr. Lhota polls better than Bloomberg did at the same point of the campaign 12 years ago. "In May 2001, Bloomberg trailed Public Advocate Mark Green 62-19. Lhota, meanwhile, trails Quinn 51-19. New York City has the proclivity to elect Republicans. Right now, Lhota is unknown to voters. As the campaign continues, voters will get to know Lhota, his experience and vision. As that happens, his numbers will increase substantially."
Relying on a chaotic democratic primary outcome, on Independent candidates to reach out a helping hand and finding comfort in the relatively low polling numbers, Mr. Lhota's campaign concludes that if all the odds are put together, and it all works out well, A path could be paved to assure Joe Lhota is elected as the Next mayor of New York City.
But then again, you have the issues of money..