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Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Poll Shows Thompson Lacking Minority Base Support

While conventional wisdom and political punditry would suggest that Bill Thompson is the favorite and destined to at least make it to the Democratic primary run-off, based on his appeal to black and minority voters, a poll analysis, shared with Chris Bragg for The Insider, indicates a drop so far in Mr. Thompson’s support among black and Latino voters compared to the same time in 2009. 

And a comparison between Thompson's current numbers and those of Fernando Ferrer at a similar point during his 2005 mayoral campaign shows Mr. Thompson a  50 points behind where Mr. Ferrer (who is Latino) was among Hispanics, and 13 points back among African-Americans.
In a Quinnipaic March 2005 poll,  Mr. Ferrer was pulling 39% of black voters and 70% of Hispanic voters. In comparison, in the Marist December 2012 poll of registered Democrats, Mr. Thompson pulled only 26% of the African-American vote and 15% of the Hispanic vote. 

Notably, in a January 2009 head-to-head poll with Mayor Bloomberg, Mr. Thompson was pulling 39% of Hispanics and 50% of blacks, Bragg notes. While those numbers improved substantially in the final election day results, he still lost by about 4.5 points. 

 In a statement, a spokesman for Mr. Thompson’s campaign said, “Bill Thompson has a proven record of electoral support that speaks far louder than dubious polls that have been wrong time and time again. African-American and Latino voters, in particular, have overwhelmingly supported Bill, even when his campaign has been outspent by $100 million. With Bill’s unique experience, background, and vision, he will once again earn the support of African-American and Latino voters, and New Yorkers across every community in the city.” 

Another interesting factor in the Marist poll, is the high undecided among Hispanic/Latino voters. While Quinn attracts 25% and Thompson 15% of the Latino vote, the rest of the candidates lag with a mere support of single digit numbers, leaving 41% undecided. This may serve as an opening to A Hispanic candidate, or to the rise of another candidate on the expense of Mr. Thompson. 

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