While conventional wisdom and political punditry would suggest that Bill Thompson is the favorite and destined to at least make it to the Democratic primary run-off, based on his appeal to black and minority voters, a poll analysis, shared with Chris Bragg for The Insider, indicates a drop so far in Mr. Thompson’s support among black and Latino voters compared to the same time in 2009.
And a comparison between Thompson's current numbers and those of Fernando Ferrer at a similar point during his 2005 mayoral campaign shows Mr. Thompson a 50 points behind where Mr. Ferrer (who is Latino) was among Hispanics, and 13 points back among African-Americans.In a Quinnipaic March 2005 poll, Mr. Ferrer was pulling 39% of black voters and 70% of Hispanic voters. In comparison, in the Marist December 2012 poll of registered Democrats, Mr. Thompson pulled only 26% of the African-American vote and 15% of the Hispanic vote.
Notably, in a January 2009 head-to-head poll with Mayor Bloomberg, Mr. Thompson was pulling 39% of Hispanics and 50% of blacks, Bragg notes. While those numbers improved substantially in the final election day results, he still lost by about 4.5 points.
In a statement, a spokesman for Mr. Thompson’s campaign said, “Bill Thompson has a proven record of electoral support that speaks far louder than dubious polls that have been wrong time and time again. African-American and Latino voters, in particular, have overwhelmingly supported Bill, even when his campaign has been outspent by $100 million. With Bill’s unique experience, background, and vision, he will once again earn the support of African-American and Latino voters, and New Yorkers across every community in the city.”
Another interesting factor in the Marist poll, is the high undecided among Hispanic/Latino voters. While Quinn attracts 25% and Thompson 15% of the Latino vote, the rest of the candidates lag with a mere support of single digit numbers, leaving 41% undecided. This may serve as an opening to A Hispanic candidate, or to the rise of another candidate on the expense of Mr. Thompson.