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Thursday, February 14, 2013

Some Snippets of the Mayoral Election NY1/Marist POll

Christine Quinn's support among Liberal Democrats is the highest with 43%, with de Blasio in second place with only 13%. 

Quinn's lead is bigger among Conservative Democrats with 38%, compared to only 33% among moderates. John Liu is in 2nd place with 16% of Conservative Democrats. Hence, 47% are still uncertain and might change their vote before election day. 

Bill Thompson has the support of less than a quarter of his strongest base:  African American voters, trailing Quinn's 29% of support. Only 32% have indicated they might change their preference before election day.

Latino Voters are highly supportive of Quinn, who receives a whopping 41% of support, almost matching her 48% support among Whites. Thompson is only in 3rd place with a mere 9% support, while 26% remain undecided. 32% are certain with their vote, 33% almost certain and 32 might end up changing their minds. 

Sal Albanese, the only Hispanic candidate included in the poll (Erick Salgado's campaign has not been officially launched yet), gets 1% of the Latino vote and 3% of the African American.

Quinn also enjoys a huge amount of support among Jewish voters: 40%, which is surprisingly high given the growing Orthodox community population in the city. de Blasio is 2nd with 18% and Thompson with 12%.

The highest number of undecideds are: Young voters ages 18-29 = 30%.

Quinn's favorability is around 60-70% among all factions within the Democratic party, with the exception of young voters, who only have a 53% favorable impression of the Speaker. 

Thompson and de Blasio share the same amount of favorability, around 50%. 

GOP Primary: 

Lhota and Catsimatidis have the highest name recognition among Republican voters. Lhota's favorability numbers are: 42/12 with 46% who have never heard of him yet. Catsimatidis's numbers are: 30/14, with 56% who have never heard of him yet.

McDonald, who's in 2nd place among GOP primary voters, is viewed favorable by 18% and unfavorable by 17%, with 65% who are unsure or have never heard of him yet. Tom Allon scores around the same numbers as McDonald.

General Hypothetical match-ups:


Quinn leads Lhota 64-18. 48-20 among Independents and 47-35 among conservatives.

Quinn leads Lhota 76-9 among African Americans, 69-16 among Latino voters and 57-26 among White voters.

Quinn also leads Lhota 56-26 among Jewish voters, 63-26 among Catholics and 72-11 among Protestants.

Lhota highest level of support, other than Republicans and conservatives  are Men with 24% compared to Quinns 66% among Women. 

de Blasio or Thompson/Lhota

Thompson leads Lhota 61-19, and de Blasio 60-18. Thompson leads 43-24 among independents, and de Blasio 37-22. Both lead 47-45 to Lhota's 32-33 percent among Conservatives.

Thompson leads 49-28 among Jewish voters, and 76--6 among African Americans.

The other candidates were not polled as potential matchup, which gives me a hard time to assess who's is more electable (well, lose with a smaller margin) than the other.

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