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Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Anthony Weiner Shakes Up Democratic Primary; Jewish Voters Remain His Largest Base

If Speaker Quinn had any hopes of cruising towards victory in the first round, leaving her rival fight for the second dignified place, Anthony Weiner has put that to rest. According to the latest Marist/NBC poll, Anthony Weiner kicks off his mayoral run with a decent 2nd place showing, a base of 15 percent.

The new poll place Mr. Weiner at 15 percent, only 11 points behind Speaker Quinn, who plummets to 26 percent, down from 37% in the last Feb. poll. Bill de Blasio, who is now the 3rd white guy in the race, is down four points to 11 percent, as is Thompson, John Liu who was at 9% in Feb, inched ahead surpassing the Bill's with 12 percent. 

Graphs via Azi Paybarah.
“Right now, a Weiner candidacy attracts double-digit support in the Democratic primary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He makes it even more difficult for any of the Democratic contenders to reach the needed forty percent to avoid a run-off.”

When Democratic voters are asked to select their preference in the primary for New York City mayor without Anthony Weiner in the race, Christine Quinn continues to outpoll her rivals.  However, her support has declined from 7 points since  February. Mr. de blasio is in 2nd place with 15%, Bill Thompson with 14%, John Liu 11% and Sal Albanese with a mere 2 percent.

What's more striking in the Marist poll is, that Jewish voters are Mr. Weiner's strongest base among Democratic voters. If Weiner would decide to run, 22% of Jewish voters ,who make up 18% of the Democratic electorate, are inclined to support his candidacy  while Speaker Quinn would only get 21%, down from 39% in Feb. Whereas if Mr. Weiner skips the mayoral race, Ms. Quinn would get 23% and Bill de Blasio 21% of the Jewish vote.

Councilman David Greenfield pointed to the other finding in the poll, in which 55% of Jewish voters say they would not consider voting for Anthony Weiner this year, calling it 'ashanda'  for his campaign, due to the fact that he's the only Jewish candidate and is relatively known in the City.
Mr. Weiner's favorability numbers among jewish Democratic voters are also not too impressing, with only 33% who have a favorable impression and 51% who have an unfavorable impression of Mr. Weiner, in comparison, Ms. Quinn and Mr. de Blasio are both viewed favorably by 51% of Jewish voters in the Democratic primary.

"Weiner  was always there for anything the Orthodox community wanted. He worked hard for the community. Who cares if he intermarried?" a Brooklyn insider told NYC Elects

The Marist poll also polled a possible matchup between Quinn or Weiner against Republican Joe Lhota, if indeed he emerges victorious from the Republican primary. 

In a Quinn-Lhota matchup, Ms. Quinn leads Mr. Lhota 59-19, with 21% undecided, while If Anthony Weiner is the Democratic choice vs. Republican Joe Lhota, only 51% would consider voting for mr. Weiner, and 28% for Mr. Lhota, with the remaining 21% undecided. This might be the reason, Mr. lhota is so eager to face Mr. Wiener  since if he could persuade the undecided to move to support his candidacy  Mr. Lhota has a real shot in winning the mayoral race by a handful of votes. 

Among Jewish voters, In a Quinn/Lhota matchup, Ms. Quinn would generate 53% of the overall NYC Jewish vote to Mr. Lhota's 29%, whereas in a Weiner/Lhota matchup, Mr. Weiner would get only 44% of the vote to Mr. lhota;'s 33, with 22% who remain undecided.

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